Eritrea: From dictatorship to democracy?

Part 2
By Fesseha Nair

Weakening and destroying dictatorship is not an easy task. Every attempt is not successful and the struggle is not free from casualties. But this does not mean dictators cannot be disintegrated and defeated. Dictators cannot face a skilfully implemented political defiance. What are the characteristic of skilfully implemented political defiance? This article will attempt to clarify the characteristics of such political defiance to be implemented in order to disintegrate the dictator in Eritrea. A political defiance that identifies the strength and weakness of the dictator at last succeed.

 What are the strengths of the Eritrean dictator at this time?

For many Eritreans the Eritrean dictatorship appears invulnerable because it has a strong security and military forces. It has control on the country’s finance, natural resources and production capacities. It has concentration camps and execution squads controlled by a powerful security forces. The opposition forces are weak, ineffective and powerless. This perception of invulnerability is not the whole truth, the ruthless dictator has its weakness and attacks should concentrate on these weaknesses.

What are the weaknesses?

-         The cooperation of the population, institutions needed to operate the system are withdrawing.

-         The regimes policies are failing every now and then.

-         Its system is becoming less capable to adjust to new situations.

-         Lacking personal and material resources for new needs.

-         Its officers and embassies are deserting.

-         Its symbols and myths are not stable and its ideology is eroded.

-         Its supporters are loosing adherence and attention.

-         Its corruption and its excessive controls and regulations make its system ineffective.

-         Disrupted operations by internal institutional conflicts and personal rivalries and hostilities.

-         Intellectuals and students leave the country because of harsh conditions, restrictions and repression.

-         The general public is apathetic, sceptical and even hostile to the regime.

How is the struggle of the opposition waged?

The Eritrean opposition must exercise power instead of waiting salvation from external forces or relying on negotiations with the dictator which are never the first means to remove dictators. What are then the available means that offer the democratic forces distinct advantages and will tend aggravate the identified weaknesses of the dictatorship. The coming congress must come with a strategic plan.

“To plan a strategy” here I mean to calculate a course of action that will make more likely to get from the present to the desired future situation. It means from a dictatorship to future democratic system. A plan to achieve that objective will usually consist of a phased series of campaigns and other organized activities designed to strengthen the oppressed population and society and to weaken the dictatorship. Note here that the objective is not simply to destroy the current dictatorship but to build a democratic system. It is not to destroy one dictatorship and replace it with warlords.

The Eritrean Opposition groups have difficulties to prepare a comprehensive strategic plan to achieve the goals. Most leaders of the Eritrean opposition do not understand the need for strategic planning or are not accustomed or trained to think strategically.

The Eritrean opposition forces must develop a wise and promising grand strategy to end the dictatorship and establish democratic system in Eritrea. Strategies that undermine the dictators’ power are needed. The strategies  should incorporate tactics aimed to strike decisive blows against the dictator. A grand strategy must consider the various issues and problems which includes these:

-         Determination of the specific objectives of the action and its results.

-         Consideration of the specific methods that can best be used.

-         Determination of the issues important for the transition period.

-         Determination of leadership structure and communication that works best.

-         Communication of the opposition forces news the general population, to the dictators’ forces, and the international press must be effective.

-         Plans for self –reliant constructive social, educational, economic, and political activities to meet the needs of the people during the struggle for democracy can be conducted by persons indirectly involved in the resistance activities.

The Eritrean opposition must use the opportunities at hand effectively. Spreading the idea of non-cooperation is crucial. The opposition has the opportunity of disseminating the idea of non –cooperation with dictatorship through the information technology like internet and satellite tv.

Once a sound strategic plan is in place, the democratic forces should not be distracted by the minor moves of the dictator that may tempt them to depart from the grand strategies. We hope the Addis meeting come out with a comprehensive strategic plan contributing to success.